UFC Predictions: UFC 301

While many are still buzzing from the drama of UFC 300, we're swiftly moving on to UFC 301.

The flyweight championship is highlighted on a PPV card for the first time since Deiveson Figueiredo clashed with Brandon Moreno at UFC 256, as Alexandre Pantoja defends his title on his native turf in Brazil against the Aussie Steve Erceg.

The evening also features another Brazilian fan-favorite making a comeback, as the future Hall of Famer José Aldo exits retirement to take on the American contender Jonathan Martinez.

• Event: UFC 301

• Date: May 4, 2024

• Venue: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

ALEXANDRE PANTOJA VS. STEVE ERCEG: TALE OF THE TAPE

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ANALYZING THE ALEXANDRE PANTOJA VS. STEVE ERCEG ODDS

7x7Bets has Alexandre Pantoja as the 260* favorite to triumph, while Steve Erceg is positioned as the underdog with odds of +215*.

ALEXANDRE PATOJA vs. STEVE ERCEG: WHERE IS THE VALUE?

Making his return to Rio de Janeiro, Alexandre Pantoja is defending his flyweight title for the second time.

Now 34, he aims to prolong his winning streak to six, having conquered top contenders like Manuel Kape, Alex Perez, and Brandon Royval in his quest for the title, eventually snagging it in a tight split decision against Brandon Moreno at UFC 290 last July.

A subsequent rematch with Royval at UFC 296 in December solidified his status as Champion, clinching a unanimous decision victory.

Having taken down many of the top-ranked fighters, Pantoja opens the door for Erceg, a UFC newcomer who's made a splash with a 3-0 record over just ten months.

Erceg, known as “Astro Boy,” showed his prowess with notable victories over David Dvořák and Alessandro Costa, before a stunning second-round knockout of Matt Schnell in March.

With proficient boxing skills and effective long-range tactics, Erceg shone, although he began to falter towards the end of the first round against Schnell, given the fight's measured pace.

Facing a challenger as adaptable and energetic as Pantoja could prove daunting for Erceg, especially with Pantoja's ability to engage both on the feet and in takedown attempts.

Pantoja's extensive experience suggests his reign as champion won't end here. Although Erceg has only one professional loss, he has yet to face a challenge of this caliber, and with the Brazilian crowd eagerly anticipating a victory, Pantoja may well secure a win by submission, possibly within distance.

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JONATHAN MARTINEZ VS. JOSÈ ALDO: TALE OF THE TAPE

ANALYZING THE JONATHAN MARTINEZ VS. JOSÈ ALDO ODDS

Martinez is pegged as the 125* favorite by 7x7Bets, while Aldo's odds stand at +109*.

JONATHAN MARTINEZ VS. JOSÈ ALDO: WHERE IS THE VALUE?

José Aldo's legendary UFC career is well-documented, except for what drives his latest comeback.

The 37-year-old ex-featherweight champ was nearing a second bantamweight title opportunity before his 2022 loss to Merab Dvalishvili prompted his retirement from the UFC.

Stints in boxing have kept Aldo active as he now aims to regain his momentum in the Octagon. Before his defeat to Dvalishvili, he had started making significant inroads in his new division, accumulating wins over Marlon Vera, Pedro Munhoz, and Rob Font.

Known as the "king of Rio" and famed for his leg kicks at featherweight, Aldo faces Jonathan Martinez, who challenges Aldo's reputation with his own powerful kicking game.

A left-hander with devastating leg kicks, Martinez has finished two of his last three bouts in this manner: Cub Swanson and Adrian Yanez in his most recent fights.

This achievement places him alongside Edson Barboza as the only UFC fighters to have multiple TKO finishes via leg kicks.

Martinez, with a UFC record of 10-3, currently rides a six-fight win streak, a testament to his all-around capability, having recently edged out Said Nurmagomedov by decision last March.

Aldo's resilience is unquestionable, with only Conor McGregor, Max Holloway, and Petr Yan managing to stop him. After his break, it's feasible that he could return in form and perform well against a contender like Martinez, who just cracks the top 15.

If one were to bet, the smart money might be on this bout going the full distance or favoring the overs. A strategic bet could be on Martinez, who could leverage his leg kicks to slow Aldo and possibly secure a decision win after three rounds.

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