UFC Predictions: UFC 300

Following the buzz, anticipation, and rumors, UFC 300 is now upon us.

The lineup is brimming with action right from the early prelims to the main showdown where Alex Pereira defends his lightweight championship against Jamahal Hill, the fighter who never officially relinquished the title.

Hill gave up the championship in July last year due to an Achilles tendon injury, a mere six months after claiming it from Pereira’s MMA guide, Glover Teixeira.

The second main event features a clash for the women’s strawweight title between Chinese fighters, with champion Zhang Weili going up against Yan Xiaonan.

Event: UFC 300

Date: April 14, 2024

Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

ALEX PEREIRA VS. JAMAHAL HILL: TALE OF THE TAPE

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DECONSTRUCTING THE ALEX PEREIRA VS. JAMAHAL HILL STAKES

Alex Pereira is favored at -125* to clinch the win, with Jamahal Hill as the less favored contender at +109*.

FINDING THE EDGE IN ALEX PEREIRA VS. JAMAHAL HILL

Already a champion across two UFC weight categories in just seven appearances, Alex Pereira has shown exceptional prowess.

After usurping his kickboxing adversary Israel Adesanya for the middleweight title in late 2022, Pereira moved up to light heavyweight following a loss in their rematch five months later.

His victory over Jan Błachowicz in July positioned him for a title bout in November, where he triumphed over another former titleholder, Jiří Procházka, who had also vacated the title due to injury, by a knockout in the second round at Madison Square Garden.

Pereira’s swift rise in the UFC, despite his limited experience in mixed martial arts, demonstrates his formidable capabilities. His punching power is monumental, and under Glover Teixeira’s mentorship, his overall MMA skills have significantly improved.

Hill’s ascent in the UFC has been rapid as well. Since his introduction through the Contender Series in 2019, Hill, now 32, secured the light heavyweight title in his eighth UFC bout, defeating Teixeira.

En route to the championship, Hill achieved knockouts in his last three fights against Thiago Santos, Johnny Walker, and Jimmy Crute.

It's clear neither contender boasts a submission victory, making a knockout the most probable outcome for this match. Both possess considerable knockout capabilities, each with six UFC victories, including four by KO/TKO.

Pereira, riding a wave of momentum and armed with significant power, is poised to vindicate his mentor Teixeira by retaining his UFC lightweight title through a decisive victory.

ZHANG WEILI VS. YAN XIAONAN: TALE OF THE TAPE

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DISSECTING ZHANG WEILI VS. YAN XIAONAN STAKES

Zhang Weili is the significant favorite at -376*, with Yan Xiaonan positioned as the underdog at odds of +295*.

UNCOVERING THE POTENTIAL IN ZHANG WEILI VS. YAN XIAONAN As the strong favorite, Zhang Weili has established herself among the elite female fighters of her era.

Her swift victory over Jessica Andrade for the strawweight title in 2019, just her fourth UFC fight, has been followed by a series of remarkable bouts. Despite two consecutive losses to Rose Namajunas in 2021, Zhang has since returned to form, securing a trio of victories to reclaim and defend her title.

Zhang's striking power and enhanced grappling skills have made her a formidable force. Her recent dominant decision victory over Amanda Lemos highlighted her ability to integrate wrestling into her offensive strategy effectively.

Yan Xiaonan, with her kickboxing foundation, has achieved an 8-2 UFC record. With the majority of her victories by decision and a notable knockout against Andrade recently, Xiaonan has secured her title opportunity.

Xiaonan's agility and skill in maintaining distance suggest that her best chance lies in leveraging her footwork to evade Zhang’s grappling attempts and avoid a direct confrontation.

However, maintaining this strategy over five rounds seems challenging. While a victory for Zhang appears likely, betting on her to secure a third submission victory in the UFC or to dominate another five-round decision may offer the best value.

JUSTIN GAETHJE VS. MAX HOLLOWAY STAKES

Justin Gaethje puts his BMF title on the line against Max Holloway, in what promises to be a UFC 300 highlight.

Gaethje claimed the title with a knockout victory over Dustin Poirier last year, cementing his status as one of the most thrilling fighters to watch, thanks to his all-or-nothing fighting style.

Former featherweight champion Holloway is making his second foray into the lightweight division after a previous loss to Poirier in their interim lightweight championship bout in 2019. This time, Holloway has dedicated additional effort to adapt to the increased weight class.

The opportunity might lie with Holloway. Known for his durability and boxing prowess, Holloway faces a challenge in withstanding Gaethje’s onslaught. Yet, with the right approach to weight gain, Holloway has every chance to emerge victorious.

Despite Gaethje being the favorite at -220 and Holloway the underdog at +185, the fight's outcome is anything but certain.

CHARLES OLIVEIRA VS. ARMAN TSARUKYAN STAKES

Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan face off in a potential 155lbs title eliminator.

Tsarukyan showcased his championship potential by knocking out Beneil Dariush in December.

Conversely, Oliveira withdrew from a rematch with champion Islam Makhachev in October due to injury, after rebounding from a title loss to Makhachev with a knockout win over Dariush last June.

Though Tsarukyan is highly favored, Oliveira's extensive experience and adaptability could offer the best value for a victory.

Tsarukyan is the favorite at -250, with Oliveira as the underdog at +208.

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