UFC Predictions: UFC 299

Miami is the destination for Sean O'Malley's first defense of his Bantamweight title as he faces Marlon “Chito” Vera at UFC 299.

Sean “Sugar” O’Malley comes into this after capturing UFC gold back in August with his spectacular knockout of Aljamain Sterling.

O'Malley has handpicked the Ecuadorian for this fight as he looks for revenge on the man who inflicted the only defeat of his career to date, when Vera scored a TKO after a leg kick left O'Malley compromised with a freak nerve injury back in 2020.

In the co-main event, Dustin Poirier puts his #3 lightweight ranking on the line against #12-ranked wrecking machine Benoit Saint Denis in what looks set to be an explosive five-round contest.

• Event: UFC 299

• Date: March 9, 2024

• Venue: Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida, United States

SEAN O'MALLEY VS. CHITO VERA II: TALE OF THE TAPE

ANALYZING THE SEAN O'MALLEY VS. CHITO VERA II ODDS

Sean O'Malley is the -209* favorite to pick up the victory, while Chito Vera is the underdog at +177*.

SEAN O'MALLEY VS. CHITO VERA II: WHERE IS THE VALUE?

“Sugar” was tipped as a future UFC champion ever since Snoop Dogg's commentary on his one-punch knockout on Dana White's Contender Series went viral back in 2017.

A slick and flashy mixed martial artist, O'Malley fought and talked with a swagger that earned him a ton more exposure than your average prospect.

The 29-year-old finally realized his championship dream when he knocked out Sterling less than a minute into the second round at UFC 292 in August 2023.

The only real bump in the road on his quest for superstardom was his fight against Vera at UFC 252 in 2020, where the Ecuadorian connected with a leg kick that damaged O'Malley's peroneal nerve and earned him a subsequent TKO victory.

Vera's trajectory following his win against O'Malley has been mixed. He has beaten five opponents since, including Pedro Munhoz, Dominick Cruz and Frankie Edgar, but has lost to both Jose Aldo and Cory Sandhagen, when victory could have seen him earn a title shot.

There is a chance Vera is O'Malley's kryptonite, which as an underdog gives us some value if you feel Vera can repeat his feat from four years ago. He was proving to be a difficult opponent in their first contest before it was stopped, and although O'Malley would argue he was figuring out Vera, it was looking like it was going to be an extremely close contest over three rounds, had it gone the distance.

Crucially, this fight is over five rounds, which allows O'Malley the extra 10 minutes to grow into the contest. Now that O'Malley has reached the summit of the division it feels like he is the type of fighter to get better as champion. His slow road to the belt has allowed him plenty of time to develop and it feels like he is only just releasing the handbrake.

Although Vera has never been stopped, O'Malley's performance against Sterling was spectacular when handing the former champion only his second-ever KO loss and first defeat in six years.

The Suga Show to keep rolling and overwhelm Vera to force a late stoppage could present the most value here.

DUSTIN POIRIER VS. BENOIT SAINT DENIS: TALE OF THE TAPE

ANALYZING THE DUSTIN POIRIER VS. BENOIT SAINT DENIS ODDS

Benoit Saint Denis enters the fight as the -155* betting favorite, with Dustin Poirier available at odds of +134*.

DUSTIN POIRIER VS. BENOIT SAINT DENIS: WHERE IS THE VALUE?

This fight will be Poirier's 30th UFC walk in what is his 13th year in the organization.

A former two-time Lightweight title challenger, the now 35-year-old has beaten some of the best in the sport, and similarly only lost to some of the best.

His trilogy with Conor McGregor, which he leads 2-1, will define his legacy and financial future. But with two losses in his last three fights, where is Poirier at?

His second-round knockout loss last time out to Justin Gaethje for the BMF title is an interesting yardstick heading into this fight, as he prepares to face an up-and-coming wrecking machine in Benoît Saint Denis.

It shows how highly the UFC rates the Frenchman, that he’s getting a shot at number #3 in the lightweight division while currently ranked #12 and in only his 7th UFC contest.

The 28-year-old served in the French special forces before making the switch to MMA. Saint Denis' only defeat came in his UFC debut, where he stepped in at short notice at Welterweight to lose via decision to Elizeu Zaleski.

In his natural weight class, “God of War” has destroyed all comers, with three KO/TKO's and two submissions inside the UFC octagon, with his first-round head kick KO of Matt Frevola at UFC 295 in November a stone cold reminder of the Judo black belt's potential.

On paper, Poirier has a superior CV and vast experience of five-round contests, which as the betting underdog presents value in itself. However, his knockout and submission losses in two of his last three fights is a big worry, especially as he is going up against an opponent who has shown devastating finishing ability and a ruthless mindset.

This co-main event will be Saint Denis' first against a top-tier opponent and first outing over the longer distance. While there are some unknown factors surrounding Saint Denis, the power and freshness of the Frenchman could prove crucial. Therefore, backing him to get this done in under 3.5 rounds could present value.

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