NHL predictions: Avalanche falling since All-Star break

The Colorado Avalanche emerged from the NHL All-Star break with a road trip and a difficult road trip at that. They are winless in four, with an overtime loss at the Rangers followed by defeats at New Jersey, Carolina and Florida.

It is a very small sample of games against quality opposition, and that needs to be taken into account. However, in that four-game stretch, the Avs are controlling just 46.8 percent of score-and-venue-adjusted expected goals during five-on-five play. While that does indicate that the Avalanche have earned this losing streak to some degree, they have scored on just 4.5 percent of their shots in that time, which ranks 30th, and dramatic fluctuations in shooting percentage tend not to last very long.

Avalanche prices have seen some variability, as they were +802* to win the Stanley Cup going into the All-Star break. In a little more than a week since, the market has moved, but still has faith in the Avalanche, as they are priced at +871* to win the Stanley Cup - the second shortest odds on the board.

Colorado continues its road trip as -167* favorites at Washington on Tuesday.

Here are some of the best bets to consider on 7x7Bets for Tuesday’s NHL schedule.

Best Money Line Bet

The Seattle Kraken have dropped three straight games, scoring a grand total of three goals in the process, and that has run their road losing streak to six games. The Kraken have a 2-7-1 record in their past 10 games, so none of this seems very encouraging. On the other hand, in those 10 games, the Kraken have still earned 51.4 percent of expected goals during five-on-five play, so they have not been as terrible as their record would suggest.

Since Patrick Roy took over as head coach, the New York Islanders have compiled a record of 3-3-1. While the Islanders have had 52.9 percent of expected goals under Roy, they have allowed eight power play goals in those seven games. For a Kraken team that has had trouble scoring, the Islanders’ slumping penalty killing unit could be just what the doctor ordered.

The main premise behind this bet is that the Islanders do not warrant being favored to this degree, so grab some potential value with the underdog Kraken.

Kraken ML (+140*)

Best Handicap Bet

The Vancouver Canucks continue to ride the hottest shooting percentage in the league, scoring on 13.2 percent of their shots, and that has made them the highest scoring team in the league, averaging 3.64 goals per 60 minutes.

At the other end of the rink, the Chicago Blackhawks rank 31st in the league with 2.05 goals per 60 minutes. The Blackhawks are winless in six straight games and last won a game in regulation on January 7 against Calgary.

In a game pitting the team with the league’s best goal differential against a team with the second worst goal differential, it is sensible to take the favored Canucks to cover the spread.

Canucks -1.5 (+101*)

Best Total Bet

Over the past month, the Detroit Red Wings rank 10th in the NHL with a goals against average of 2.49, thanks in large part to goaltender Alex Lyon, who has stepped up as Detroit’s best option between the pipes. Lyon has a .924 save percentage in his past dozen starts and has a .920 save percentage on the road. 

Although the Edmonton Oilers are known for their high-powered attack, led by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, but they have a goals against average of 1.79 over the past month, the lowest mark in the league.

With strong goaltending performances on both sides, the value opportunity for this game is for the total to go Under.

Red Wings-Oilers Under 6.5 (+107*)

Best Player Prop Bet

Montreal Canadiens sophomore winger Juraj Slafkovsky is riding a five-game point streak, during which he has accumulated four goals and two assists. The 19-year-old forward has played more than 17 minutes in each of the past four games, topping 20 minutes in Sunday’s loss to St. Louis.

Slafkovsky is skating on Montreal’s top line, alongside Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki, and is getting first unit power play time. All of these factors are positive indicators of Slafkovsky’s continued offensive production.

The Canadiens are at home against the Anaheim Ducks on Tuesday, and the Ducks are a woeful defensive team, ranking 30th with 3.47 expected goals against per 60 minutes, and 26th with 3.39 goals against per 60 minutes.

An improving young forward against a subpar defensive team offers potential value as both a goal-scorer and point producer.

Juraj Slafkovsky Over 0.5 points (-119*)