MLB 2024 Season Betting Preview

DODGERS FAVORED TO WIN THE WORLD SERIES

When Shohei Ohtani decided to join the Los Angeles Dodgers as the biggest free agent signing in history, then was followed by Japanese free agent pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the Dodgers were quickly listed as the 2024 World Series favorites.

The Dodgers have already been perennial contenders, playing over .600 baseball in six of the past seven seasons, but taking these big swings this offseason raises expectations.

While the Dodgers are the favorites, it’s not like the rest of the contenders are just conceding the title to them. Let’s take a look at some of the top contenders, value plays and long shots to win the 2024 World Series plus a look at individual awards.

FAVORITES

Los Angeles Dodgers (+323*)

The Dodgers have reached the playoffs for 11 straight seasons and should extend that streak this season, but the challenge for any World Series contender is that, in a short series, upsets can happen quite easily.

A lineup that boasts Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman is going to be a handful on most nights. The question marks revolve around the health of the Dodgers’ pitchers. 

Walker Buehler appears to be nearing a return to action after recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he last pitched in June of 2022. Clayton Kershaw is recovering from shoulder surgery, but he could be available later in the season, too. James Paxton holds a spot in the Dodgers’ rotation to start the year, but the 35-year-old southpaw hasn’t started 20 games in a season since 2019. 

The good news for the Dodgers is that they have Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow and Bobby Miller to anchor the rotation and Ryan Yarbrough can help eat innings while they wait to get to full health. If the stars return in fine form, then the Dodgers could be devastating and, still, winning one playoff series, let alone the championship, is no sure thing.

Atlanta Braves (+588*)

With the best offense in baseball last season, the Braves won 104 games and still lost the Division Series in four games to the Philadelphia Phillies.Atlanta had five players – Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna Jr., Marcell Ozuna, Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies – with more than 30 home runs last season. Olson led the way with 54.

The Braves have maintained a lot of that same lineup, though they have added former top prospect Jarred Kelenic, a 24-year-old outfielder who made progress in Seattle last season after embarrassing attempts to stick in the Mariners’ lineup in 2021 and 2022. 

The upside for the Braves might rest with left-handed starting pitcher Chris Sale, who has been unable to stay healthy but can miss bats when he takes the mound. Along with Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Bryce Elder and Charlie Morton, the Braves have a capable rotation and they have the bats to back them up.

Between the two favorites, it would seem that the Braves may offer better relative value.

New York Yankees (+911*)

The Yankees adding Juan Soto to a lineup that already includes Aaron Judge has created plenty of excitement in the Bronx, but championship aspirations seem to be hanging on the health of 2023 AL Cy Young winner, Gerrit Cole. As the Yankees ace rehabs an elbow injury, there is hope that he will be ready to pitch in a couple of months, but what if he isn’t? 

The Yankees added Marcus Stroman and are hoping for a bounce-back season from Carlos Rodon, but if Cole isn’t pitching to his usual standards – or pitching at all – can they realistically harbor championship aspirations? 

The good news for the Yankees is that they have the resources to address the pitching issue if it truly is a problem, but there are enough questions to not be all-in on the Yankees before the season gets underway.

Houston Astros (+954*) 

Perennial contenders who have reached the playoffs for seven consecutive seasons, winning the World Series twice and losing in the World Series twice more, the Astros have built the foundation of a team that can compete every year. Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman provide the base for a dangerous batting order.

The challenge, as with so many contenders, is if the pitching staff can stay healthy. The Astros are likely to begin the season with Justin Verlander, Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. all on the injured list. Even at 41, Verlander is the least dispensable of those arms and the Astros do have excellent depth to overcome injuries on the mound. Given their consistent presence in the postseason, the Astros do offer potential value among the favorites.

VALUE PLAYS

Philadelphia Phillies (+1472*)

It is difficult to go overboard when praising the Phillies because they are facing an uphill fight against the Braves in the National League East. It is tough when they are in the same division as Atlanta, yet the Phillies have had success against the Braves, knocking Atlanta out of the playoffs in each of the past two seasons.

Bryce Harper and Trea Turner are star performers and Kyle Schwarber smashed 47 home runs last season, so the Phillies have a lineup that can do some damage. While Philadelphia’s pitching staff is not as deep as the top contenders, Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola tend to make the Phillies a very dangerous opponent in a playoff series.

Seattle Mariners (+2025*)

The Mariners have reached the playoffs once in the past 22 seasons and have not won a playoff game since 2001, so suddenly winning the World Series would be a big step forward. The batting order needs more support for emerging superstar Julio Rodriguez.

Shortstop J.P. Crawford had a breakthrough season in 2023 but the Mariners need some pop. They will hope that designated hitter Mitch Garver, left fielder Dominic Canzone and second baseman Jorge Polanco will be able to add more offensive support.

On the mound, though, Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert are top quality starting pitchers and that should keep the Mariners competitive. Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo were competent as rookies last season and if they continue their development that could increase the Mariners’ chances of reaching the postseason.

Arizona Diamondbacks (+3456*)

Much like the Phillies, the Diamondbacks have to deal with the looming shadow of the powerhouse team expected to finish atop the division. In the National League West, it is the Dodgers, though the Diamondbacks swept them out of the Division Series last season.

National League Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll is the difference-maker for Arizona and veterans Ketel Marte and Christian Walker add some stability to a promising young lineup. 

The Diamondbacks somehow reached the World Series last year with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly as their top two pitchers and then patched together whatever they could in the other starts. They added left-handed starter Eduardo Rodriguez to help shore up the rotation and it gives the Diamondbacks more reason to hope for another trip to the World Series.

LONG SHOTS

Tampa Bay Rays (+3629*)

The Rays lineup and starting rotation do not look like those of a championship contender. However, this is a team that have managed to reach the postseason in five straight seasons. While they have not enjoyed great playoff success, they get outstanding production from players that are not necessarily household names. Yandy Diaz, Isaac Paredes, Josh Lowe and Harold Ramirez each had an OPS+ of 125 or higher last season.

Where this gets more challenging is the pitching staff. The Rays sent Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers and are dealing with injuries to Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, Taj Bradley and Shane Baz. As a result, Zach Eflin is the ace of the staff, followed by Ryan Pepiot and Aaron Civale, so it is not a championship level starting staff. At the same time, the Rays are comfortable going to bullpen games and not relying on starters to log a lot of innings.

All of this is to say that the Rays have proven to be resilient and, even without marquee names, are to be ignored at your peril. 

St. Louis Cardinals (+4147*)

After reaching the playoffs for four straight seasons, the Cardinals fell off a cliff last year and won just 71 games. Their .438 winning percentage was the franchise’s lowest since 1995. 

The Cardinals can count on first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and catcher Willson Contreras to be productive bats and the Cardinals should get enough offense from a supporting cast that includes Nolan Arenado, Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker. That should help St. Louis get back to a winning record.

Of course, that will also depend on a veteran-laden pitching staff that has seen some ups and downs throughout their careers. Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Miles Mikolas are all experienced starters who have enjoyed major league success. They have also had some challenging seasons, too, which makes their performance in 2024 more difficult to predict.

Nevertheless, as a long shot play, the Cardinals are worth a look.  

INDIVIDUAL AWARDS

AL MVP

Yankees teammates Aaron Judge (+552*) and Juan Soto (+602*) are the favorites, ahead of Yordan Alvarez (+802*), Julio Rodriguez (+1002*) and Corey Seager (+1002*). 

Looking for value further down the board? Consider Jose Ramirez (+2485*), who has finished in the top six in voting five times in the past seven seasons, or Marcus Semien (+4011*), who has finished in the top three of voting twice in the past three seasons. 

NL MVP

Ronald Acuna Jr. is favored to win back-to-back MVP awards, priced at +501* on Pinnacle. He comes in ahead of Mookie Betts (+651*) and Shohei Ohtani (+732*) of the Dodgers. Fernando Tatis Jr. (+1002*) and Bryce Harper (+1002*) round out the top five. 

Trea Turner (+2203*) and Austin Riley (+2253*) are not even the top contenders on their own teams but have the potential to put up MVP numbers.

AL CY YOUNG

With 2023 Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole injured, Toronto Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman (+700*) has emerged as the favorite. He is followed by Tarik Skubal (+800*), Framber Valdez (+850*), Corbin Burnes (+900*) and Luis Castillo (+900*).

George Kirby (+1400*), Pablo Lopez (+1600*), and Shane Bieber (+3000*) offer potential value further down the board. Bieber won the AL Cy Young in 2020 and Lopez ranks fourth in projected WAR by ZiPS.

NL CY YOUNG

Atlanta Braves ace Spencer Strider is the clear favorite, at +462*, but Dodgers rookie Yoshinobu Yamamoto (+783*) is a contender right from the start of his major league career. Zack Wheeler (+819*), Logan Webb (+972*) and Zac Gallen (+1226*) are next in line.

Aaron Nola (+2247*) could offer some value as the ZiPS projected WAR leader among National League pitchers. If he makes a smooth return from Tommy John surgery, maybe Walker Buehler (+7647*) could be an intriguing long shot.

AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

There is serious competition for the top rookie in the American League. Baltimore Orioles second baseman Jackson Holliday, the first pick overall in the 2022 Draft, is the favorite (+255*) but Evan Carter (+306*) sparkled when he was called up late last season and was a big part of Texas’ World Series win.

Carter’s teammate with the Rangers, Wyatt Langford (+365*), hit .360 with a 1.157 OPS in 200 plate appearances across four levels of the minor leagues last season, his first as a pro, leading to high expectations for his first major league season.

Angels first baseman Nolan Schanuel (+762*) and Rays shortstop Junior Caminero (+813*) are next on the board. 

NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

The Dodgers have high hopes for 25-year-old Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who was outstanding in Japan, and now figures to be a top tier starter for a World Series contender. He was priced at +161* to win National League Rookie of the Year.

Giants outfielder Jung Hoo Lee (+485*) hit .340 in seven seasons in Korea, so he could make an immediate impact. Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio (+853*), Diamondbacks shortstop Jordan Lawlar (+962*) and 30-year-old Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga (+962*) are the next to challenge Yamamoto for National League rookie supremacy. 

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