March Madness 2024 predictions: Chalk rules heading into Sweet Sixteen

While the initial rounds saw some surprises, the essence of the first weekend of March Madness 2024 was the progression of the top two seeds from each region into the Sweet Sixteen, marking this occurrence the fifth time in the history of the tournament and the first instance since 2019.

The Associated Press highlighted that the average winning margin in the first couple of rounds was 15.8 points, the highest gap recorded since 1985, barring one instance.

North Carolina State stands out as the singular double-digit seed still in contention. The Wolfpack, who seemed unlikely to make it to the Big Dance, clinched the ACC Tournament, securing a spot as an No. 11 seed and bringing a seven-game victory streak to their game against No. 2 seed Marquette. NC State, with odds of +9569*, holds the least favorable odds to clinch the championship.

The Connecticut Huskies, having started as the favorites for the tournament, continue to hold that position as we head into the second weekend, with odds of +198* to secure back-to-back championships. They're trailed closely by the Houston Cougars at +529* and the Purdue Boilermakers at +613*, the only teams with odds better than +1000.

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Despite not being the conventional underdogs, the Duke Blue Devils are nobility in college basketball. Yet, with a 26-8 tally, their performance hasn't consistently been at a championship-worthy level. They're the fourth seed in the South, facing a tough battle against top-seeded Houston.

However, Duke's placement at sixth in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings is noteworthy, especially considering seven of their eight losses were by a narrow margin of five points or fewer. This suggests that Duke’s actual performance might be better than their record suggests, offering them as a valuable bet against the top seed.

Houston, despite its strong season, has shown cracks, needing overtime to surpass Texas A&M in the March Madness second round and facing a 69-41 defeat against Iowa State in the Big 12 Tournament.

Houston's defense has been formidable, but Duke likely has a decent shot in this face-off.

Duke ML (+162*)

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Another No. 4 seed, the Alabama Crimson Tide, appears poised to challenge the top seed in their region. Despite questions around their defense, Alabama's scoring ability is undisputed, standing fourth in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency with 125.1 points per 100 possessions.

However, Alabama's 1-8 record against Top 25 teams casts doubt on their prospects against North Carolina.

The North Carolina Tar Heels, possibly overrated as a No. 1 seed, have nonetheless triumphed in 10 of their last 11 games, indicating they won't be easily defeated. They're ninth in Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency rankings, with the Crimson Tide at 14th, hinting Alabama could keep the game competitive.

Alabama +4 (+102*)

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The Purdue Boilermakers, leading the Midwest region with a 7-foot-4 center, Zach Edey, have seen the total go Under 154 in eight of 13 games since February's start, with one game hitting that mark exactly.

Although the Gonzaga Bulldogs have a more potent offense, ranking seventh in offensive efficiency, they've had games with limited scoring.

Against conference rival St. Mary’s, Gonzaga scored under 130 points in all matches. With St. Mary’s and Purdue ranked 14th and 16th in defensive efficiency respectively, Purdue might limit Gonzaga's scoring.

Gonzaga-Purdue Under 154 (-106*)

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Tennessee's guard Dalton Knecht, with an average of 21.1 points per game this season and at least 21 points in 16 of 34 games, faces a tough match. Notably, he has surpassed 20 points only once in seven neutral-site games this season.

Knecht and the Volunteers are up against the Creighton Blue Jays, who are 23rd in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Despite Knecht's impressive season, the matchup on a neutral floor poses a significant challenge.

Dalton Knecht Under 20.5 points (-114*)

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