Can Euro qualifying matches help inform your predictions?

HOW IMPORTANT ARE EURO QUALIFYING MATCHES?

Predicting international football results is notably challenging for punters. For instance, a Premier League team plays 38 matches in one season, whereas an international team may take several years to reach that number of games.

For example, England's first of the 38 matches leading up to Euro 2024 was their 2-0 victory against Germany, which occurred three years ago at the last tournament. Moreover, nearly one-fourth of these matches were friendly encounters.

And then, you have to wonder if qualifiers against countries like Andorra, Malta, and San Marino even count as competitive, truly speaking.

Yet, looking ahead to the European Championships, it’s crucial to assess whether a team’s qualifying performance affects their results at the main tournament, since these qualifiers are a major chunk of a national team’s competitive play.

Our understanding is complicated by the constantly evolving nature of the qualifying rounds. Euro 2024 marks the eighth tournament since the expansion to at least 16 teams in 1996, with seven different formats used to determine the finalists in these years.

Even so, the two instances that followed the same method were spaced 12 years apart. Regardless of the variety, there's typically a division of group winners, followed by second-place finishers and/or playoff victors.

For Euro 2024, the lineup includes host Germany, 10 qualifying group winners, 10 second-place finishers, and three playoff champions, comprising the 24 competing nations.

Utilizing data accessible from Wikipedia, we can analyze the performance of teams from these categories over the last six editions of the European Championships to identify any trends that might inform our betting strategies.

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Euros qualifiers performance since Euro 2000

HOW WELL DO PLAYOFF QUALIFIERS PERFORM AT EUROS?

At Euro 2024, three nations, Georgia (for their first appearance), Poland, and Ukraine, have secured their spots through the playoffs.

Given their extended path to the finals, it’s not surprising that playoff winners generally do not perform well, with the exception of Euro 2008.

Occasionally, there are outliers. The Netherlands reached the semifinals in 2004, and Portugal achieved the same in 2012, only to be defeated by the ultimate champions, Spain.

Outside these instances, success stories are rare; the 21 playoff qualifiers since 2000 have only produced two more quarterfinalists. At Euro 2020, none of the playoff teams advanced beyond the group stage.

This trend is mirrored in 7x7Bets’ odds for Euro 2024, where none of the playoff qualifiers is given more than a 1% chance of winning the tournament, with only Ukraine likely to progress to the knockout stages.

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HOW WELL DO QUALIFYING GROUP RUNNERS-UP PERFORM AT EUROS?

Euro 2024 in Germany will feature 10 teams that secured their places as runners-up in their qualifying groups, including Austria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Italy, Netherlands, Scotland, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Switzerland.

Teams that automatically qualified but did not top their groups generally have a better track record than those coming through the playoffs.

There’s even a finalist among them, though knowing it was Germany in 2008 may not seem as surprising as the bare fact suggests.

Due to various qualification formats over the years, most of these teams participated in Euro 2008 and the two subsequent editions. They found more success earlier, with stronger teams and only 16 nations competing, compared to 24 in later tournaments.

In 2008, five of the eight quarterfinalists in Austria and Switzerland were runners-up from the qualifiers, and three reached the semifinals.

Including the German finalists, this group featured the Netherlands, Portugal, and France in 2008, all of whom could have easily topped their qualification groups without raising eyebrows.

In 2016, Wales proudly represented the runners-up with a semifinal run, while Iceland and Poland reached the quarterfinals. Similarly, Denmark reached the semifinals in the last tournament, with the Czech Republic exiting in the round before.

This means that among the 24-team editions, a quarter of the qualifying runners-up reached at least the quarterfinals. 7x7Bets’ current odds for Euro 2024 suggest two out of these 10 might reach that stage this summer, with Italy and the Netherlands being the likely candidates. Croatia, tied as the ninth favorite, has a strong chance of making it to the quarterfinals.

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HOW WELL DO QUALIFYING GROUP WINNERS PERFORM AT EUROS?

This year’s 10 qualifying group winners are Albania, Belgium, Denmark, England, France, Hungary, Portugal, Romania, Spain, and Turkey. Their prospects vary, but this group includes four of the top five favorites in 7x7Bets’ Euro 2024 Winner market.

Historically, this is unsurprising.

These nations account for nine of the 12 finalists over the last six European Championships and all the winners. They also represent 13 of the 24 semifinalists (54.2%) and 30 of the 48 quarterfinalists (62.5%). Since group winners have constituted 48.2% of the teams since Euro 2000, they consistently outperform their representation in the final rounds.

In 2020, only Poland from this cohort fell at the group stage, with Austria and the Czech Republic doing the same in the previous tournament. Thus, most of these 10 teams in Germany should advance to the Round of 16, with one likely celebrating in Berlin on July 14.

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How well do Euro hosts perform at the tournament?

Germany, this summer’s host and third favorite with 7x7Bets to win, has a promising outlook.

Euro 2020 had no official host, though England played almost all their matches at Wembley and were a penalty shootout away from winning the trophy.

In the five tournaments before that, with three being co-hosted, the hosts provided a pair of runners-up and another semifinalist.

Their performance seems more related to their standing in European football at the time than to home advantage.

The three nations that reached the later stages were all ranked 14th or higher among European teams in the FIFA World Rankings at the tournament's start; the five that didn’t surpass the group stage were ranked 20th or lower.

History suggests Germany is a solid bet to at least reach the semifinals.

SUMMARY

Ignoring the host nations due to their home-field advantage, the pattern is clear. Looking at the quarterfinals, semifinals, or finals, the proportion of teams reaching these stages is highest for qualification group winners, followed by runners-up, with playoff qualifiers being the least successful.

This might be what one would expect, but when placing your bets, it’s always beneficial to have data to support your hypotheses and assess whether the odds offer good value.

Now you know how can Euro qualifying matches help your prediction. Sign Up Now or click HERE to play at 7x7Bets, the most reliable and trustworthy online casino in India. Don't forget to claim your withdrawable real money welcome deposit bonus, weekly cashback bonus and referral bonus!