- Parlay betting strategy
- The limitations of parlays
Why Parlays are generally considered to be poor bets
Typically, wagering on Parlays is viewed as a less favorable betting strategy. Each event added to the bet amplifies the bookmaker's margin significantly.
This often results in bets that greatly favor the bookmaker.
Parlay betting strategy: Multiplying advantages
A commonly overlooked aspect of Parlay bets is their potential to enhance a bettor’s edge, just as they increase the bookmaker’s margin. For bettors confident in their edge against the bookmaker, Parlays can serve as potent tools to amplify their advantage.
Consider a bettor who determines that three events, each at decimal odds of 2.00 (indicating a 50% implied probability), actually possess a 55.55% chance of occurring (equivalent to odds of 1.8):
Parlay betting strategy
Event | Bettor's odds | Bookmaker's odds | Bettor's implied probability (%) | Bookmaker's implied probability (%) | % difference (edge) |
Event 1 | 1.8 | 2 | 55.55 | 50 | 11.11 |
Event 2 | 1.8 | 2 | 55.55 | 50 | 11.11 |
Event 3 | 1.8 | 2 | 55.55 | 50 | 11.11 |
Parlay | 5.832 | 8 | 17.15 | 12.5 | 37.17 |
In such cases, the bettor gains from the Parlay similarly to how the bookmaker typically benefits. Their edge is significantly broadened.
Dependent events
Without an existing edge, another scenario where a Parlay could be beneficial is if the bettor can link bets that seem independent but are somehow interconnected.
For instance, imagine a wager on a cricket player and a separate bet on a team he doesn't play for, to score beyond a certain total during the season. Should the team score highly, it might indicate a high-scoring season across the league.
Such outcomes could stem from rule modifications, a shift in league play styles, or various minor elements that collectively impact both results favorably.
These conditions would likely increase the player's scoring chances, even if he’s not part of the specific team. Thus, the bets are interrelated to some extent.
While most bookies might prevent such combined bets, it’s not impossible for a punter to occasionally find two apparently unrelated bets that actually correlate.
Parlays and volatility
Bettors should note that Parlays heighten the volatility of outcomes in the short term.
Taking the earlier example, a bettor wagering on individual results might win over 50% of the time based on their predicted probability. However, when outcomes are combined into a Parlay, the win rate might drop to 17%, although the reward would quadruple.
Such an increase in potential returns also boosts the volatility of earnings. It’s conceivable that events in a Parlay might not occur together frequently, making this variability challenging to manage without sufficient long-term betting to average out outcomes.
The limitations of Parlays
Besides the typical constraints experienced by successful bettors at bookmakers, Parlays pose additional challenges, even at more astute betting platforms.
The scenario depicted in this article, of a bettor enhancing their edge over the bookie, is something bookmakers tend to avoid. Hence, even sharper bookies might lower the odds when bets are compiled into a Parlay. Moreover, the inherent volatility of Parlays complicates the bookmakers' risk management strategies.
In summary, like most betting tactics, the efficacy of Parlays depends largely on the bettor's skill. They can be as advantageous for a skilled bettor as they are detrimental to an inexperienced one.
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