- Finding the average number of goals per game
- Calculating Over/Under market goals probabilities
- Determining which odds are worth betting on
- Soccer data and insights
Soccer bettors often search for more lucrative markets beyond the conventional 1X2, where unpredictable events like a lack of goals or a late equalizer can undermine even the most insightful predictions. A promising strategy to outsmart bookmakers in soccer betting involves the Over/Under goals markets. This guide outlines a straightforward approach to calculating goal probabilities and translating them into odds, helping bettors make informed decisions on what to wager on and what to bypass.
Step 1: Find the average number of goals per game in over/under markets
Compared to many sports, soccer typically features fewer scoring events, making it entirely possible for a match to end without any goals. For this reason, bookmakers, including 7x7Bets, meticulously analyze the average goals per match of the teams involved when setting odds for Over/Under markets.
If 7x7Bets offers Over 2.5 goals in a Premier League match at 1.925, and you find another bookie with odds of 1.800 for the same bet, it's clear 7x7Bets offers the better deal. But how do you decide if it's worth betting on this market in the first place?
A smart starting point is to adopt the bookmakers' method by determining the average number of goals per game for both teams in the match you're interested in.
Finding this data is typically straightforward with a bit of research online. To give an example, here are the average goals per game across various major soccer leagues and tournaments over the last seven seasons:
Competition | 2022-23 | 2021-22 | 2020-21 | 2019-20 | 2018-19 | 2017-18 | 2016-17 |
Bundesliga | 3.17 | 3.12 | 3.03 | 3.21 | 3.18 | 2.79 | 2.87 |
UEFA Champions League | 2.98 | 3.04 | 2.93 | 3.24 | 2.93 | 3.21 | 3.04 |
English Premier League | 2.85 | 2.82 | 2.69 | 2.72 | 2.82 | 2.68 | 2.80 |
Ligue 1 | 2.81 | 2.81 | 2.76 | 2.52 | 2.56 | 2.72 | 2.61 |
UEFA Europa League | 2.70 | 2.64 | 3.03 | 2.78 | 2.76 | 2.71 | 2.76 |
FIFA World Cup | 2.69 | - | - | - | 2.64 | - | - |
Serie A | 2.56 | 2.87 | 3.06 | 3.04 | 2.68 | 2.68 | 2.96 |
La Liga | 2.51 | 2.50 | 2.51 | 2.48 | 2.59 | 2.69 | 2.94 |
As illustrated, major soccer leagues and competitions have generally averaged between 2.5 to 3 goals per game in recent times, though it's wise to evaluate each league or competition individually. For example, the Mongolian Premier League recently averaged 5.23 goals per game, while the Zimbabwe Premier Soccer League saw only 1.94 goals per match.
Step 2: Calculate the probabilities
The unpredictable nature of scoring in soccer allows the application of a Poisson distribution as a basic model for predicting Over/Under betting outcomes. Understanding what this means in practice is crucial.
John Haigh's "Taking Chances" includes a table outlining the probabilities of a team scoring a range of goals based on their average goals per game:
Average number of goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 or more |
0.8 | 45% | 36% | 14% | 4% | 1% |
1.2 | 30% | 36% | 22% | 9% | 3% |
1.6 | 20% | 32% | 26% | 14% | 8% |
2.0 | 14% | 27% | 27% | 18% | 14% |
For a match where the home team has averaged 1.2 goals per game and the away side have averaged 0.8, it is easy to determine the probability for under 2.5 goals occuring by using the above table.
Firstly, determine the correct scores that will lead to a winning under 2.5 goals bet (0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0, and 0-2). You can then find the respective probabilities for each team from the above table and mutiply them together to calculate the probability for each scoreline:
Exact score | Probability of home team to score the indicated number of goals | Probability of away team to score the indicated number of goals | Probability of exact score |
0-0 | 30% | 45% | 30% x 45% = 13.5% |
1-0 | 36% | 45% | 36% x 45% = 16.2% |
0-1 | 30% | 36% | 30% x 36% = 10.8% |
1-1 | 36% | 36% | 36% x 36% = 2.96% |
2-0 | 22% | 45% | 22% x 45% = 9.9% |
0–2 | 30% | 14% | 30% x 14% = 4.2% |
Total under 2.5 goals probability: | 67.56% |
Since we know the individual probabilities of each potential score that can lead to under 2.5 goals occurring, we can add them together to get the overall probability of the match ending in under 2.5 goals and, therefore, a winning under 2.5 goals bet.
In this example, that would be:
13.5% + 16.2% + 10.8% + 12.96% + 9.9% + 4.2% = 67.5%
Step 3: Determine what odds are worth betting on
Once you have established the statistical probability of the match to end in less than 2.5 goals, you are then in a position to determine which odds you should accept.
To convert probability into decimal odds, you use the following simple formula:
Decimal odds = 100 / probability
Applying this to a 67.56% chance gives decimal odds of 1.48. Therefore, betting on under 2.5 goals is advisable only if you find odds exceeding 1.48.
While this method doesn’t guarantee a win, it does furnish a straightforward betting strategy with a positive expected value, likely leading to profits over time by balancing long-term gains and losses.
Conducting this analysis before betting on Over/Under goals lets you enjoy the game, confident in the knowledge that you’ve maximized your chances of a successful wager.
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