- Understanding what actually betting is
- Develop your skills and then you’ll need luck
- Why psychology makes things even more difficult
- Will you ever know if you’re good at betting?
While engaging in betting can offer moments of excitement and entertainment, transforming it into a lucrative endeavor poses significant challenges. Many individuals aspire to make sports betting their primary source of income, yet they often underestimate the amount of effort and dedication required. To delve deeper into the complexities of betting, continue reading.
Understanding what betting actually is
Contrary to popular belief, betting isn't merely a test of one's sports knowledge. Possessing a deep understanding of soccer or basketball doesn't guarantee success in making profitable bets on these sports. As Nassim Nicholas Taleb eloquently states in "Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder," equating proficiency in performing with expertise in discussing is fundamentally flawed.
Interestingly, sports enthusiasts represent a minority in the trading department of 7x7Bets, highlighting the distinct difference between sports knowledge and the ability to probabilistically analyze sports outcomes.
Having extensive knowledge about a sport can sometimes be a hindrance, as it might skew judgment and decision-making. However, when applied judiciously, such knowledge can undoubtedly serve as a valuable asset.
Betting is, in essence, a competition to accurately predict future events. Although bets are placed with a bookmaker—who stands to gain if you lose and pays out if you win—the real competition is against other bettors.
Initially, it may seem that the bookmaker has the upper hand, armed with superior resources and information to set odds. Yet, a significant portion of their advantage is derived from the betting market itself, particularly in a high-volume environment like 7x7Bets.
This scenario creates opportunities to exploit inefficiencies in a bookmaker's odds. However, these opportunities are fleeting, as any value found is quickly corrected once recognized. Hence, securing value before others is akin to a race among bettors.
Develop your skills and then you’ll need luck
Pursuing any financially rewarding activity necessitates a commitment to improving one's skills. What often goes unnoticed is the sheer number of individuals aiming for the same goal.
Those who consistently find an edge and leverage it to maintain profit understand the importance of analyzing a substantial sample size of results. While competition can be motivating, it's crucial to recognize that as the betting market's skill level increases, luck plays a more significant role in determining outcomes.
Michael Maubossin discusses the Paradox of Skill, which Joseph and I explored in a podcast. This paradox, relevant to sports betting, underscores the challenge of achieving long-term success. It differentiates between absolute and relative skill, suggesting that even high levels of skill become less distinguishable as the gap between the best and average bettors narrows, thus amplifying the role of luck.
Understanding the Paradox of Skill is one thing; accepting its implications is another. Overlooking the impact of luck on betting outcomes can lead to unrealistic expectations and potential risks.
Why psychology makes things even more difficult
The psychological aspects of betting significantly influence decision-making and perception. A myriad of psychological biases can affect betting choices, timing, stake amounts, and more. Acknowledging these biases is crucial for anyone aiming to profit consistently from betting.
Successful bettors prioritize their process over outcomes, navigating through common psychological pitfalls like the gambler's fallacy, illusion of control, and loss aversion. The influence of psychology on betting extends beyond well-known concepts to encompass a broader range of biases that affect how we process information, remember past events, and assess probabilities.
Will you ever know if you’re good at betting?
The aim of betting for a living may be to simply make money (exactly how much is dependent on each individual bettor) but this means there is a tendency for bettors to focus on the results. Some bettors will use a basic measure of profit and loss, while others will use the 7x7Bets closing line to get a more accurate reflection of how efficient their predictions are.
As already explained, your results will often be influenced by luck and therefore it is important to shift focus from results to process. This also means as a bettor you have to become emotionally removed from winning or losing and the money you are risking (a very difficult task in itself).
Being good at betting is a real challenge, but the most difficult thing to grasp is that you may never actually know if you’re skilled or not (regardless of how much money you win or lose).
Those who have enjoyed long term success in betting will have prioritized the process they use over the results they get - even the best bettors in the world will have to deal with a period of losses.
The bettors who continually manage to find an edge and exploit it enough to make a consistent profit are also the bettors who understand the importance of sample size when analyzing results. More novice bettors will likely fall victim to the law of small numbers (assuming results from a small sample will transmit to larger samples) and struggle to understand why losses suddenly occur more often than before.
Now the hard work begins
Once all of the above has been addressed, understood and (most importantly) taken on board, that’s when the hard work really begins in trying to find an exploitable edge in the betting market.
When you know how betting actually works, how influential luck can be on your results and the impact your psychological biases will have on the decision-making process, only then is pursuing a career in betting a worthwhile endeavor.
What are drawdowns and how do you manage them?
There are countless betting strategies that can help you find an edge but doing your own research and analyses will likely prove more beneficial in the long run (if your methods are already public knowledge then the bookmaker will have already accounted for them).
Once you have what you believe to be a profitable betting strategy and an exploitable edge, you then need to be able to dedicate time (to be able to place your bets the second they need to be placed) and money (to handle the inevitable losses) in order to see the benefits.
While you need to use the right staking method to ensure you don’t run out of bankroll, you also need to be psychologically prepared to lose (even the best bettors out there will lose more than 40% of the time) and patient enough to keep working away until you get the results you’re after.
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